How to Set a Festive Ad Budget in India Using Your Own Numbers
Festive ad costs rise, but by how much depends on your category. Learn to set Diwali and festive budgets from your own baseline and allowed cost per purchase.
Why costs rise at festival time
In the festive season more brands compete for the same shoppers. Meta and Google use an auction, so more bidders push prices up. That is why you cannot take your August numbers and multiply by a fixed budget.
Step 1: record your baseline
Before the season, note your normal numbers: cost per purchase, conversion rate, average order value and return rate. If you did not record August, use the last stable month and be honest about its limits.
Step 2: work out your allowed cost
Allowed cost per purchase is what you can pay to win an order and still reach your profit goal. Start with the average order value, subtract product cost, shipping, payment fees and expected returns, then keep the profit you need. What remains is your allowed cost.
| Example (illustrative) | Amount |
|---|---|
| Average order value | ₹1,500 |
| Product cost | ₹600 |
| Shipping and fees | ₹200 |
| Expected returns cost | ₹100 |
| Profit you need | ₹250 |
| Allowed cost per purchase | ₹350 |
Step 3: expect higher costs and plan for them
If your normal cost per purchase is ₹250, a rise of 50% would take it to ₹375, which is above the ₹350 allowed cost in the example. That tells you to improve conversion rate, raise order value with bundles or accept lower profit on the first order. Public 2025 data suggests costs peak around Diwali week, so test your offers earlier when costs are calmer.
Step 4: scale by marginal cost
Average cost hides what the last rupees bought. Compare the extra purchases you got from extra spend, and stop increasing when that extra cost passes your allowed cost. See how to scale Meta Ads without losing ROAS.
Read the last-days checklist: Diwali 2026 ads checklist. Want a team to handle this for you? See our Meta Ads agency service in Surat.
Want a festive budget built on your real margins?
We calculate your allowed cost and a step-by-step spend plan in the free audit.
Frequently asked questions
Estimates vary. ProfitBox360's 2025 data reports Meta CPM about 50% higher on average from Navratri to Diwali and about 80% higher in Diwali week compared with August. Other sources quote wider ranges, so use your own history.
The most you can pay to win one order and still make the profit you need, worked out from your margin after product, shipping, returns and fees.
Only while the extra purchases still cost less than your allowed cost. Rising costs mean each rupee buys less, so increase in steps and check marginal cost.
In 2025 data from ProfitBox360, Meta costs were about 2.5% below August two weeks after Diwali. Your timing may differ, so watch your own numbers.
